Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Aegon N.V. (AGN.AS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.22 - $4.33$3.79
Multi-Stage$9.80 - $10.86$10.32
Blended Fair Value$7.05
Current Price$6.15
Upside14.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.01%6.95%0.300.280.100.070.040.180.190.170.180.17
YoY Growth--5.47%195.81%38.02%92.06%-79.61%-5.79%11.56%-3.92%4.79%9.77%
Dividend Yield--5.25%5.03%2.44%1.45%0.90%7.71%4.29%3.09%3.70%3.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,272.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)572.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)699.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)254.40159.0095.40
Cash Retained (M)699.50699.50699.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-254.40-159.00-95.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)445.10540.50604.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,734.181,734.181,734.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.310.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.310.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.590.640.68
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate-9.79%-8.79%-7.79%
Fair Value$3.22$3.79$4.33
Upside / Downside-47.72%-38.45%-29.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,272.001,160.171,058.18965.15880.30802.91827.00
Payout Ratio45.01%54.01%63.00%72.00%81.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)572.50626.57666.70694.94713.06722.62764.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate-9.79%-8.79%-7.79%
Year 1 PV (M)580.93587.37593.81
Year 2 PV (M)573.13585.90598.82
Year 3 PV (M)553.89572.52591.56
Year 4 PV (M)526.94550.70575.25
Year 5 PV (M)495.12523.17552.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,271.7415,080.5115,925.54
Equity Value (M)17,001.7517,900.1818,837.47
Shares Outstanding (M)1,734.181,734.181,734.18
Fair Value$9.80$10.32$10.86
Upside / Downside59.41%67.84%76.63%

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