Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (ADS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.75 - $38.80$33.90
Multi-Stage$44.46 - $48.87$46.62
Blended Fair Value$40.26
Current Price$56.80
Upside-29.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-19.53%0.00%0.880.860.880.861.242.622.572.370.620.00
YoY Growth--2.38%-2.33%2.38%-30.69%-52.43%1.76%8.40%285.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.56%1.52%1.56%1.54%1.11%7.78%1.46%1.11%0.25%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)293.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)61.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)231.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.7436.7122.03
Cash Retained (M)231.80231.80231.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.74-36.71-22.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)173.06195.09209.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)48.6848.6848.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.564.014.31
LTM Dividend per Share1.271.271.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.564.014.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.835.285.58
WACC / Discount Rate10.98%10.98%10.98%
Growth Rate-4.98%-3.98%-2.98%
Fair Value$28.75$33.90$38.80
Upside / Downside-49.39%-40.32%-31.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)293.70282.01270.79260.02249.67239.73246.93
Payout Ratio21.08%34.86%48.65%62.43%76.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)61.9098.31131.73162.33190.29215.76228.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.98%10.98%10.98%
Growth Rate-4.98%-3.98%-2.98%
Year 1 PV (M)87.6788.5989.51
Year 2 PV (M)104.74106.96109.20
Year 3 PV (M)115.10118.77122.52
Year 4 PV (M)120.31125.46130.77
Year 5 PV (M)121.65128.18135.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,614.651,701.421,791.88
Equity Value (M)2,164.122,269.382,378.88
Shares Outstanding (M)48.6848.6848.68
Fair Value$44.46$46.62$48.87
Upside / Downside-21.72%-17.92%-13.96%

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