Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Auswide Bank Ltd (ABA.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.13 - $7.30$6.20
Multi-Stage$12.54 - $13.82$13.17
Blended Fair Value$9.68
Current Price$3.74
Upside158.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.26%8.34%0.250.170.310.230.300.310.150.230.220.23
YoY Growth--49.36%-46.40%35.26%-21.48%-5.38%106.22%-32.91%5.17%-7.29%105.31%
Dividend Yield--6.73%3.13%5.16%3.58%6.12%6.02%2.70%4.40%4.23%4.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)17.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.264.542.72
Cash Retained (M)17.0617.0617.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.26-4.54-2.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.8012.5214.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)45.7745.7745.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.270.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.270.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-4.74%-3.74%-2.74%
Fair Value$5.13$6.20$7.30
Upside / Downside37.28%65.81%95.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36.3034.9433.6332.3831.1730.0030.90
Payout Ratio53.00%60.40%67.80%75.20%82.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.2421.1022.8024.3525.7427.0028.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-4.74%-3.74%-2.74%
Year 1 PV (M)19.5119.7219.92
Year 2 PV (M)19.4919.9120.32
Year 3 PV (M)19.2419.8620.48
Year 4 PV (M)18.8119.6120.44
Year 5 PV (M)18.2419.2220.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)478.68504.34531.09
Equity Value (M)573.99602.65632.49
Shares Outstanding (M)45.7745.7745.77
Fair Value$12.54$13.17$13.82
Upside / Downside235.34%252.08%269.52%

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