Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Benesse Holdings, Inc. (9783.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$656.02 - $1,037.92$830.44
Multi-Stage$3,043.40 - $3,360.23$3,198.63
Blended Fair Value$2,014.53
Current Price$2,585.00
Upside-22.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.70%-4.51%59.9954.9549.9649.9649.9672.4294.8594.7094.7294.72
YoY Growth--9.17%9.98%0.00%0.00%-31.00%-23.65%0.15%-0.01%0.00%-0.52%
Dividend Yield--2.32%2.99%2.27%1.81%1.73%2.82%2.41%2.23%3.94%3.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,442.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,787.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)655.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,288.40805.25483.15
Cash Retained (M)655.00655.00655.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,288.40-805.25-483.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)-633.40-150.25171.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)96.4796.4796.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share-6.57-1.561.78
LTM Dividend per Share59.9959.9959.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share-6.57-1.561.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend53.4258.4361.77
WACC / Discount Rate4.53%4.53%4.53%
Growth Rate-3.34%-2.34%-1.34%
Fair Value$656.02$830.44$1,037.92
Upside / Downside-74.62%-67.87%-59.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,442.006,291.396,144.306,000.655,860.365,723.345,895.04
Payout Ratio89.83%89.87%89.90%89.93%89.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,787.005,653.815,523.695,396.565,272.365,151.015,452.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.53%4.53%4.53%
Growth Rate-3.34%-2.34%-1.34%
Year 1 PV (M)5,353.225,408.605,463.98
Year 2 PV (M)4,951.955,054.945,158.99
Year 3 PV (M)4,580.774,724.414,871.03
Year 4 PV (M)4,237.404,415.494,599.13
Year 5 PV (M)3,919.774,126.774,342.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)270,548.71284,835.84299,720.28
Equity Value (M)293,591.82308,566.05324,155.83
Shares Outstanding (M)96.4796.4796.47
Fair Value$3,043.40$3,198.63$3,360.23
Upside / Downside17.73%23.74%29.99%

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