Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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NSW Inc. (9739.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,579.50 - $6,533.73$4,803.86
Multi-Stage$3,223.95 - $3,519.90$3,369.24
Blended Fair Value$4,086.55
Current Price$2,714.00
Upside50.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS23.97%20.28%94.9060.0054.9039.9334.9032.4227.4519.9324.9722.49
YoY Growth--58.17%9.29%37.48%14.42%7.66%18.09%37.71%-20.17%11.02%50.15%
Dividend Yield--3.50%1.78%2.25%1.71%1.54%1.53%1.01%0.91%1.35%2.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,605.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,268.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,337.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)721.00450.63270.38
Cash Retained (M)2,337.002,337.002,337.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-721.00-450.63-270.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,616.001,886.382,066.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.9014.9014.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share108.46126.61138.71
LTM Dividend per Share85.1085.1085.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share108.46126.61138.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend193.56211.71223.81
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate4.36%5.36%6.36%
Fair Value$3,579.50$4,803.86$6,533.73
Upside / Downside31.89%77.00%140.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,605.003,798.114,001.574,215.934,441.774,679.704,820.09
Payout Ratio35.17%46.14%57.10%68.07%79.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,268.001,752.402,285.062,869.753,510.534,211.734,458.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate4.36%5.36%6.36%
Year 1 PV (M)1,577.971,593.091,608.21
Year 2 PV (M)1,852.801,888.481,924.50
Year 3 PV (M)2,095.282,156.092,218.07
Year 4 PV (M)2,308.002,397.742,490.08
Year 5 PV (M)2,493.382,615.152,741.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,707.4039,549.0241,461.89
Equity Value (M)48,034.8250,199.5752,444.39
Shares Outstanding (M)14.9014.9014.90
Fair Value$3,223.95$3,369.24$3,519.90
Upside / Downside18.79%24.14%29.69%

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