Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Neutech Group Limited (9616.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$54.34 - $121.52$113.88
Multi-Stage$18.40 - $20.13$19.25
Blended Fair Value$66.57
Current Price$3.20
Upside1,980.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS127.62%0.00%0.340.150.130.020.000.010.220.040.000.00
YoY Growth--117.73%22.07%512.88%2,740.47%-86.79%-97.53%413.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--11.45%4.94%4.28%0.69%0.02%0.10%4.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)392.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)216.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)176.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)78.4349.0229.41
Cash Retained (M)176.06176.06176.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-78.43-49.02-29.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)97.63127.04146.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)641.73641.73641.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.200.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.200.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.530.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$54.34$113.88$121.52
Upside / Downside1,598.26%3,458.87%3,697.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)392.13417.62444.76473.67504.46537.25553.37
Payout Ratio55.10%62.08%69.06%76.04%83.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)216.07259.26307.16360.18418.80483.52511.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)241.27243.56245.84
Year 2 PV (M)266.00271.07276.18
Year 3 PV (M)290.27298.61307.10
Year 4 PV (M)314.09326.17338.60
Year 5 PV (M)337.46353.76370.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,357.8310,858.1211,377.56
Equity Value (M)11,806.9312,351.2912,915.96
Shares Outstanding (M)641.73641.73641.73
Fair Value$18.40$19.25$20.13
Upside / Downside474.95%501.46%528.96%

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