Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Arabian Food & Dairy Factories Company (9536.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.82 - $86.44$70.72
Multi-Stage$119.23 - $131.18$125.09
Blended Fair Value$97.91
Current Price$68.95
Upside41.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-16.25%0.00%1.502.543.173.184.893.640.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---40.94%-19.95%-0.18%-35.04%34.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.67%2.75%3.53%3.44%5.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.821.140.68
Cash Retained (M)5.205.205.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.82-1.14-0.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.384.064.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.411.411.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.402.883.20
LTM Dividend per Share2.772.772.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.402.883.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.175.655.97
WACC / Discount Rate6.91%6.91%6.91%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$56.82$70.72$86.44
Upside / Downside-17.59%2.57%25.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9.119.028.938.848.758.668.92
Payout Ratio42.88%52.31%61.73%71.15%80.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.914.725.516.297.057.808.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.91%6.91%6.91%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4.374.414.46
Year 2 PV (M)4.724.824.92
Year 3 PV (M)4.995.155.30
Year 4 PV (M)5.185.405.62
Year 5 PV (M)5.305.585.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)143.55151.02158.80
Equity Value (M)168.11176.38184.97
Shares Outstanding (M)1.411.411.41
Fair Value$119.23$125.09$131.18
Upside / Downside72.92%81.42%90.26%

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