Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

ANA Holdings Inc. (9202.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,782.79 - $9,519.27$6,635.09
Multi-Stage$8,857.54 - $9,741.26$9,290.88
Blended Fair Value$7,962.99
Current Price$2,861.00
Upside178.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.30%8.43%46.150.000.000.000.0049.2539.4041.2434.3227.42
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%25.00%-4.46%20.17%25.15%33.53%
Dividend Yield--1.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.01%1.09%1.01%0.88%0.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)148,334.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47,042.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)101,292.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29,666.8018,541.7511,125.05
Cash Retained (M)101,292.00101,292.00101,292.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-29,666.80-18,541.75-11,125.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)71,625.2082,750.2590,166.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)509.70509.70509.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share140.52162.35176.90
LTM Dividend per Share92.2992.2992.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share140.52162.35176.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend232.82254.64269.20
WACC / Discount Rate5.72%5.72%5.72%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Fair Value$4,782.79$6,635.09$9,519.27
Upside / Downside67.17%131.92%232.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)148,334.00151,027.21153,769.32156,561.21159,403.79162,297.99167,166.93
Payout Ratio31.71%43.37%55.03%66.69%78.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47,042.0065,501.7984,616.39104,403.51124,881.26146,068.19154,629.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.72%5.72%5.72%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Year 1 PV (M)61,347.4461,955.9562,564.46
Year 2 PV (M)74,223.4475,703.2077,197.57
Year 3 PV (M)85,771.8988,349.6390,978.50
Year 4 PV (M)96,088.2899,957.82103,943.06
Year 5 PV (M)105,262.12110,587.24116,125.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,092,001.154,299,012.104,514,317.56
Equity Value (M)4,514,694.314,735,565.944,965,126.89
Shares Outstanding (M)509.70509.70509.70
Fair Value$8,857.54$9,290.88$9,741.26
Upside / Downside209.60%224.74%240.48%

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