Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Traton SE (8TRA.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.39 - $47.79$39.08
Multi-Stage$66.44 - $73.09$69.70
Blended Fair Value$54.39
Current Price$27.28
Upside99.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-25.42%0.00%1.500.700.500.271.006.490.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--114.29%40.00%85.19%-73.05%-84.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.82%2.08%2.64%1.60%4.35%50.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,780.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)850.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)930.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)356.00222.50133.50
Cash Retained (M)930.00930.00930.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-356.00-222.50-133.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)574.00707.50796.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)500.54500.54500.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.151.411.59
LTM Dividend per Share1.701.701.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.151.411.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.843.113.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$31.39$39.08$47.79
Upside / Downside15.06%43.26%75.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,780.001,762.201,744.581,727.131,709.861,692.761,743.55
Payout Ratio47.75%56.20%64.65%73.10%81.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)850.00990.401,127.901,262.551,394.401,523.491,612.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)917.26926.62935.98
Year 2 PV (M)967.47987.321,007.36
Year 3 PV (M)1,003.001,034.021,065.67
Year 4 PV (M)1,025.951,068.471,112.30
Year 5 PV (M)1,038.151,092.211,148.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,306.3329,780.3131,315.06
Equity Value (M)33,258.1634,888.9436,584.87
Shares Outstanding (M)500.54500.54500.54
Fair Value$66.44$69.70$73.09
Upside / Downside143.57%155.51%167.93%

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