Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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MORI TRUST Sogo Reit, Inc. (8961.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - OfficeSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$77,097.62 - $120,423.75$97,052.68
Multi-Stage$96,920.25 - $105,761.52$101,259.77
Blended Fair Value$99,156.23
Current Price$74,700.00
Upside32.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201720172016
DPS5.77%3.73%3,591.762,843.232,501.022,857.762,778.872,712.853,194.042,659.622,985.242,772.55
YoY Growth--26.33%13.68%-12.48%2.84%2.43%-15.07%20.09%-10.91%7.67%11.31%
Dividend Yield--5.87%4.08%3.30%4.00%3.58%4.15%3.71%3.16%3.47%2.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)27,491.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18,838.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,652.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,498.303,436.442,061.86
Cash Retained (M)8,652.538,652.538,652.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,498.30-3,436.44-2,061.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,154.235,216.096,590.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.563.563.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share886.021,465.201,851.31
LTM Dividend per Share5,291.845,291.845,291.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share886.021,465.201,851.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend6,177.866,757.047,143.16
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate1.79%2.79%3.79%
Fair Value$77,097.62$97,052.68$120,423.75
Upside / Downside3.21%29.92%61.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)27,491.4928,258.7629,047.4429,858.1330,691.4431,548.0232,494.46
Payout Ratio68.53%72.82%77.12%81.41%85.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18,838.9620,578.3722,400.2024,307.6826,304.2028,393.2230,057.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate1.79%2.79%3.79%
Year 1 PV (M)18,534.4718,716.5518,898.63
Year 2 PV (M)18,171.4618,530.2518,892.55
Year 3 PV (M)17,760.3218,288.9118,827.89
Year 4 PV (M)17,310.1718,000.4818,711.24
Year 5 PV (M)16,829.0617,672.1118,548.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)256,430.61269,276.49282,632.09
Equity Value (M)345,036.09360,484.80376,511.02
Shares Outstanding (M)3.563.563.56
Fair Value$96,920.25$101,259.77$105,761.52
Upside / Downside29.75%35.56%41.58%

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