Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation (8956.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$246,562.60 - $563,042.54$359,197.38
Multi-Stage$322,589.02 - $353,643.91$337,824.14
Blended Fair Value$348,510.76
Current Price$134,200.00
Upside159.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.24%7.68%6,001.315,760.326,714.285,269.205,105.885,115.754,710.914,557.994,305.193,448.54
YoY Growth--4.18%-14.21%27.43%3.20%-0.19%8.59%3.35%5.87%24.84%20.45%
Dividend Yield--5.50%4.62%4.61%3.49%4.45%3.16%4.04%4.54%3.19%2.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18,173.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,014.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,159.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,634.782,271.741,363.04
Cash Retained (M)7,159.887,159.887,159.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,634.78-2,271.74-1,363.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,525.114,888.155,796.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.461.461.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share2,414.783,348.493,970.97
LTM Dividend per Share7,544.847,544.847,544.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share2,414.783,348.493,970.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend9,959.6210,893.3411,515.82
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate2.35%3.35%4.35%
Fair Value$246,562.60$359,197.38$563,042.54
Upside / Downside83.73%167.66%319.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18,173.8918,782.1519,410.7620,060.4220,731.8221,425.6922,068.46
Payout Ratio60.60%66.48%72.36%78.24%84.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,014.0012,486.8914,046.0315,695.5517,439.7519,283.1220,413.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate2.35%3.35%4.35%
Year 1 PV (M)11,613.3911,726.8611,840.33
Year 2 PV (M)12,149.6312,388.2112,629.11
Year 3 PV (M)12,626.7313,000.4713,381.52
Year 4 PV (M)13,048.4713,565.9614,098.69
Year 5 PV (M)13,418.4214,086.8914,781.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)408,060.42428,388.97449,519.75
Equity Value (M)470,917.06493,157.37516,251.15
Shares Outstanding (M)1.461.461.46
Fair Value$322,589.02$337,824.14$353,643.91
Upside / Downside140.38%151.73%163.52%

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