Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ANTA Sports-r (82020.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$258.83 - $832.80$418.37
Multi-Stage$171.48 - $187.27$179.23
Blended Fair Value$298.80
Current Price$86.20
Upside246.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.80%18.94%2.091.381.290.830.480.490.830.670.530.46
YoY Growth--50.97%7.20%55.62%71.72%-0.85%-41.61%25.21%25.69%15.54%24.44%
Dividend Yield--2.86%2.08%1.43%0.87%0.47%0.78%2.53%2.27%2.56%2.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)28,115.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,285.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)16,830.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,623.003,514.382,108.63
Cash Retained (M)16,830.0016,830.0016,830.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,623.00-3,514.38-2,108.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)11,207.0013,315.6314,721.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,905.402,905.402,905.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.864.585.07
LTM Dividend per Share3.883.883.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.864.585.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.748.478.95
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$258.83$418.37$832.80
Upside / Downside200.27%385.35%866.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)28,115.0029,942.4831,888.7433,961.5036,169.0038,519.9939,675.59
Payout Ratio40.14%50.11%60.08%70.06%80.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,285.0015,004.4719,159.7823,791.9028,945.2434,667.9936,699.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)13,679.5613,809.2213,938.88
Year 2 PV (M)15,925.5116,228.8516,535.05
Year 3 PV (M)18,029.4918,547.0519,074.42
Year 4 PV (M)19,997.8320,766.8921,557.92
Year 5 PV (M)21,836.6422,891.3623,986.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)408,749.70428,492.46448,990.83
Equity Value (M)498,218.74520,735.84544,083.56
Shares Outstanding (M)2,905.402,905.402,905.40
Fair Value$171.48$179.23$187.27
Upside / Downside98.93%107.92%117.25%

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