Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sunshine Insurance Group Company Limited (6963.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.61 - $11.67$9.50
Multi-Stage$16.56 - $18.23$17.38
Blended Fair Value$13.44
Current Price$2.96
Upside354.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS20.38%0.00%0.170.180.150.130.030.070.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---5.23%18.56%12.89%286.96%-48.48%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.52%4.47%3.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,681.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,064.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,617.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,936.201,210.13726.08
Cash Retained (M)5,617.005,617.005,617.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,936.20-1,210.13-726.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,680.804,406.884,890.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,502.0011,502.0011,502.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.380.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.380.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.740.78
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.61$9.50$11.67
Upside / Downside157.04%221.02%294.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,681.009,584.199,488.359,393.469,299.539,206.539,482.73
Payout Ratio41.98%51.58%61.19%70.79%80.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,064.004,943.845,805.686,649.797,476.438,285.888,771.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4,587.764,634.584,681.39
Year 2 PV (M)4,999.505,102.055,205.64
Year 3 PV (M)5,313.955,478.295,645.98
Year 4 PV (M)5,544.225,774.006,010.85
Year 5 PV (M)5,701.925,998.836,307.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)164,338.94172,896.45181,806.79
Equity Value (M)190,486.29199,884.19209,658.64
Shares Outstanding (M)11,502.0011,502.0011,502.00
Fair Value$16.56$17.38$18.23
Upside / Downside459.50%487.10%515.81%

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