Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Uni-Trend Technology (China) Co., Ltd. (688628.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$254.39 - $299.72$280.88
Multi-Stage$205.64 - $225.59$215.43
Blended Fair Value$248.15
Current Price$35.90
Upside591.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS99.79%0.00%1.220.380.300.450.190.040.050.220.000.00
YoY Growth--222.19%26.56%-33.08%139.65%386.82%-21.75%-77.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.18%0.90%0.72%1.65%0.63%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)166.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)146.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.3820.8612.52
Cash Retained (M)20.8620.8620.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.38-20.86-12.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)-12.53-0.018.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)110.76110.76110.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.110.000.08
LTM Dividend per Share1.321.321.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.110.000.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.211.321.39
WACC / Discount Rate-1.02%-1.02%-1.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$254.39$280.88$299.72
Upside / Downside608.61%682.39%734.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)166.92177.77189.32201.63214.74228.69235.55
Payout Ratio87.50%88.00%88.50%89.00%89.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)146.06156.44167.56179.45192.19205.82217.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.02%-1.02%-1.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)156.56158.05159.53
Year 2 PV (M)167.82171.01174.24
Year 3 PV (M)179.87185.03190.30
Year 4 PV (M)192.79200.20207.83
Year 5 PV (M)206.62216.60226.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,873.2422,929.7324,026.65
Equity Value (M)22,776.9023,860.6324,985.51
Shares Outstanding (M)110.76110.76110.76
Fair Value$205.64$215.43$225.59
Upside / Downside472.83%500.08%528.37%

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