Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Nanjing Vishee Medical Technology Co., Ltd (688580.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.72 - $52.45$35.10
Multi-Stage$19.10 - $20.81$19.94
Blended Fair Value$27.52
Current Price$49.59
Upside-44.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.19%36.90%1.070.530.930.750.530.360.220.260.090.23
YoY Growth--100.23%-42.59%23.77%42.82%45.38%64.77%-14.48%192.25%-61.63%395.41%
Dividend Yield--3.15%1.47%1.90%1.68%0.71%0.20%0.12%0.00%0.00%0.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)125.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)77.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.1915.749.45
Cash Retained (M)48.7148.7148.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.19-15.74-9.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.5232.9739.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)95.6195.6195.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.340.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.810.810.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.340.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.051.151.22
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$24.72$35.10$52.45
Upside / Downside-50.15%-29.22%5.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)125.95134.14142.86152.14162.03172.56177.74
Payout Ratio61.33%67.06%72.80%78.53%84.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)77.2489.96103.99119.48136.54155.31164.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)81.0181.7882.55
Year 2 PV (M)84.3485.9587.57
Year 3 PV (M)87.2789.7792.33
Year 4 PV (M)89.8193.2796.82
Year 5 PV (M)92.0096.45101.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,391.881,459.111,528.91
Equity Value (M)1,826.321,906.321,989.23
Shares Outstanding (M)95.6195.6195.61
Fair Value$19.10$19.94$20.81
Upside / Downside-61.48%-59.79%-58.04%

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