Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.,Ltd (688526.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.91 - $50.14$30.96
Multi-Stage$15.11 - $16.48$15.78
Blended Fair Value$23.37
Current Price$17.72
Upside31.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.99%0.00%0.430.210.200.290.000.180.260.100.060.00
YoY Growth--110.72%3.86%-31.67%36,981.60%-99.57%-29.87%158.82%57.36%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.77%1.10%0.73%1.15%0.00%0.58%0.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)459.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)199.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)259.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)91.9157.4434.47
Cash Retained (M)259.76259.76259.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-91.91-57.44-34.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)167.85202.31225.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)471.79471.79471.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.430.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.430.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate9.43%9.43%9.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.91$30.96$50.14
Upside / Downside17.99%74.71%182.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)459.54489.41521.22555.10591.18629.61648.50
Payout Ratio43.47%52.78%62.08%71.39%80.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)199.78258.31323.60396.29477.06566.65599.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.43%9.43%9.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)233.83236.05238.26
Year 2 PV (M)265.17270.22275.32
Year 3 PV (M)293.96302.40311.00
Year 4 PV (M)320.34332.65345.33
Year 5 PV (M)344.44361.07378.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,669.055,942.866,227.16
Equity Value (M)7,126.787,445.267,775.41
Shares Outstanding (M)471.79471.79471.79
Fair Value$15.11$15.78$16.48
Upside / Downside-14.75%-10.94%-6.99%

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