Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Nippon Signal Co., Ltd. (6741.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,609.59 - $2,700.32$2,088.12
Multi-Stage$1,926.48 - $2,109.33$2,016.20
Blended Fair Value$2,052.16
Current Price$1,217.00
Upside68.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.48%6.26%33.9426.9526.9426.9425.9425.9925.1124.3224.0222.94
YoY Growth--25.94%0.06%0.00%3.83%-0.19%3.51%3.23%1.27%4.68%24.11%
Dividend Yield--3.15%2.59%2.51%2.74%2.83%2.29%1.99%2.26%2.32%2.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,266.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,681.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,585.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,653.201,033.25619.95
Cash Retained (M)5,585.005,585.005,585.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,653.20-1,033.25-619.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,931.804,551.754,965.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)62.3762.3762.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share63.0472.9879.60
LTM Dividend per Share42.9842.9842.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share63.0472.9879.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend106.02115.96122.59
WACC / Discount Rate8.86%8.86%8.86%
Growth Rate2.13%3.13%4.13%
Fair Value$1,609.59$2,088.12$2,700.32
Upside / Downside32.26%71.58%121.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,266.008,524.878,791.849,067.179,351.139,643.979,933.29
Payout Ratio32.43%43.95%55.46%66.97%78.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,681.003,746.444,875.996,072.617,339.408,679.589,188.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.86%8.86%8.86%
Growth Rate2.13%3.13%4.13%
Year 1 PV (M)3,408.183,441.553,474.93
Year 2 PV (M)4,035.254,114.664,194.84
Year 3 PV (M)4,571.804,707.414,845.67
Year 4 PV (M)5,026.625,226.395,432.07
Year 5 PV (M)5,407.765,677.745,958.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)97,706.92102,584.89107,655.77
Equity Value (M)120,156.52125,752.64131,561.67
Shares Outstanding (M)62.3762.3762.37
Fair Value$1,926.48$2,016.20$2,109.33
Upside / Downside58.30%65.67%73.32%

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