Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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E-Star Commercial Management Company Limited (6668.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.90 - $4.48$3.63
Multi-Stage$6.74 - $7.42$7.07
Blended Fair Value$5.35
Current Price$1.19
Upside349.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-10.18%0.00%0.160.060.120.050.000.280.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--153.98%-45.20%133.82%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--14.37%5.61%6.24%1.64%0.00%7.78%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)315.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)229.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)86.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)63.1039.4423.66
Cash Retained (M)86.1286.1286.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-63.10-39.44-23.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.0146.6862.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,013.291,013.291,013.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.90$3.63$4.48
Upside / Downside143.49%205.27%276.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)315.50312.35309.22306.13303.07300.04309.04
Payout Ratio72.71%76.16%79.62%83.08%86.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)229.39237.90246.21254.34262.28270.04285.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)221.28223.54225.79
Year 2 PV (M)213.01217.38221.80
Year 3 PV (M)204.67211.00217.46
Year 4 PV (M)196.32204.45212.84
Year 5 PV (M)188.00197.79207.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,811.176,113.776,428.84
Equity Value (M)6,834.457,167.937,514.72
Shares Outstanding (M)1,013.291,013.291,013.29
Fair Value$6.74$7.07$7.42
Upside / Downside466.79%494.45%523.21%

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