Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Li Ming Development Construction Co., Ltd. (6212.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$116.29 - $226.63$160.06
Multi-Stage$192.80 - $211.74$202.08
Blended Fair Value$181.07
Current Price$43.30
Upside318.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS3.13%0.00%3.480.000.002.990.002.990.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)746.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)357.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)389.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)149.2293.2655.96
Cash Retained (M)389.12389.12389.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-149.22-93.26-55.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)239.89295.85333.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)102.50102.50102.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.342.893.25
LTM Dividend per Share3.483.483.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.342.893.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.826.376.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate1.13%2.13%3.13%
Fair Value$116.29$160.06$226.63
Upside / Downside168.57%269.65%423.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)746.12762.02778.26794.84811.78829.08853.95
Payout Ratio47.85%56.28%64.71%73.14%81.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)357.00428.85503.60581.34662.16746.17789.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate1.13%2.13%3.13%
Year 1 PV (M)399.88403.83407.79
Year 2 PV (M)437.85446.56455.34
Year 3 PV (M)471.30485.42499.82
Year 4 PV (M)500.56520.65541.35
Year 5 PV (M)525.96552.48580.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,426.2418,305.0219,218.90
Equity Value (M)19,761.7920,713.9621,703.25
Shares Outstanding (M)102.50102.50102.50
Fair Value$192.80$202.08$211.74
Upside / Downside345.25%366.71%389.00%

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