Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ticker

Industry

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AirTrip Corp. (6191.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$808.99 - $1,264.49$1,018.70
Multi-Stage$1,119.18 - $1,228.78$1,172.93
Blended Fair Value$1,095.82
Current Price$980.00
Upside11.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.51%0.00%9.939.939.849.809.048.777.845.260.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.90%0.45%8.37%3.05%11.93%49.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.01%0.87%0.53%0.40%0.29%0.70%0.39%0.29%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,840.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)223.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,617.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)368.00230.00138.00
Cash Retained (M)1,617.001,617.001,617.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-368.00-230.00-138.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,249.001,387.001,479.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.4522.4522.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share55.6361.7765.87
LTM Dividend per Share9.939.939.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share55.6361.7765.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend65.5671.7175.80
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate0.51%1.51%2.51%
Fair Value$808.99$1,018.70$1,264.49
Upside / Downside-17.45%3.95%29.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,840.001,867.791,896.001,924.641,953.711,983.212,042.71
Payout Ratio12.12%27.70%43.27%58.85%74.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)223.00517.30820.431,132.611,454.021,784.891,889.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate0.51%1.51%2.51%
Year 1 PV (M)471.40476.09480.78
Year 2 PV (M)681.30694.93708.68
Year 3 PV (M)857.08882.92909.27
Year 4 PV (M)1,002.681,043.191,084.91
Year 5 PV (M)1,121.641,178.561,237.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,994.4822,059.8623,168.06
Equity Value (M)25,128.5826,335.5427,589.47
Shares Outstanding (M)22.4522.4522.45
Fair Value$1,119.18$1,172.93$1,228.78
Upside / Downside14.20%19.69%25.39%

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