Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Feihe Limited (6186.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.52 - $10.13$8.19
Multi-Stage$15.59 - $17.14$16.35
Blended Fair Value$12.27
Current Price$5.21
Upside135.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-0.78%0.00%0.290.280.240.370.300.300.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--1.83%19.73%-37.14%26.36%-0.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.60%7.45%4.02%4.39%1.94%3.65%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,264.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,086.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,177.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,252.87783.04469.82
Cash Retained (M)1,177.521,177.521,177.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,252.87-783.04-469.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)-75.34394.48707.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,063.039,063.039,063.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.040.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.040.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.64
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.52$8.19$10.13
Upside / Downside25.17%57.22%94.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,264.336,201.686,139.676,078.276,017.495,957.316,136.03
Payout Ratio81.20%82.96%84.72%86.48%88.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,086.805,145.055,201.625,256.555,309.865,361.585,675.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4,790.794,839.674,888.56
Year 2 PV (M)4,509.974,602.484,695.93
Year 3 PV (M)4,243.794,375.034,508.95
Year 4 PV (M)3,991.664,157.094,327.62
Year 5 PV (M)3,753.013,948.444,151.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)120,035.82126,286.37132,794.62
Equity Value (M)141,325.04148,209.08155,367.61
Shares Outstanding (M)9,063.039,063.039,063.03
Fair Value$15.59$16.35$17.14
Upside / Downside199.30%213.88%229.04%

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