Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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CMOC Group Limited (603993.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.89 - $31.55$22.02
Multi-Stage$12.17 - $13.27$12.71
Blended Fair Value$17.37
Current Price$15.70
Upside10.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.40%21.61%0.330.300.230.120.120.200.130.090.040.06
YoY Growth--9.94%30.86%96.74%-7.64%-37.26%58.84%47.02%90.09%-28.99%36.86%
Dividend Yield--4.30%3.60%3.79%2.21%2.37%5.74%2.53%1.01%0.95%1.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19,538.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,739.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,799.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,907.752,442.351,465.41
Cash Retained (M)12,799.0212,799.0212,799.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,907.75-2,442.35-1,465.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,891.2710,356.6811,333.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)21,108.2021,108.2021,108.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.490.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.490.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.86
WACC / Discount Rate10.42%10.42%10.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.89$22.02$31.55
Upside / Downside1.20%40.27%100.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19,538.7720,808.7922,161.3723,601.8625,135.9826,769.8127,572.91
Payout Ratio34.49%45.60%56.70%67.80%78.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,739.759,487.8512,564.7316,001.5119,832.0024,092.8325,504.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.42%10.42%10.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)8,512.068,592.758,673.43
Year 2 PV (M)10,113.1610,305.7910,500.23
Year 3 PV (M)11,554.7811,886.4812,224.46
Year 4 PV (M)12,847.9613,342.0513,850.27
Year 5 PV (M)14,003.0414,679.4015,381.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)199,862.28209,515.71219,538.59
Equity Value (M)256,893.30268,322.17280,168.62
Shares Outstanding (M)21,108.2021,108.2021,108.20
Fair Value$12.17$12.71$13.27
Upside / Downside-22.48%-19.03%-15.46%

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