Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhejiang Xinhua Chemical Co.,Ltd (603867.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.58 - $70.12$40.57
Multi-Stage$18.53 - $20.23$19.36
Blended Fair Value$29.97
Current Price$33.20
Upside-9.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.63%12.01%0.580.530.420.340.210.220.180.160.120.14
YoY Growth--9.38%26.72%22.66%64.15%-4.63%20.62%11.58%37.85%-18.33%-22.89%
Dividend Yield--2.26%1.91%1.17%1.43%1.17%0.88%1.00%0.90%0.65%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)231.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)90.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)141.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)46.3428.9617.38
Cash Retained (M)141.70141.70141.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-46.34-28.96-17.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)95.36112.74124.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)203.61203.61203.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.470.550.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.470.550.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.911.001.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.11%9.11%9.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26.58$40.57$70.12
Upside / Downside-19.95%22.20%111.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)231.70246.77262.81279.89298.08317.46326.98
Payout Ratio38.85%49.08%59.31%69.54%79.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)90.01121.10155.86194.63237.78285.71302.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.11%9.11%9.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)109.95110.99112.03
Year 2 PV (M)128.47130.91133.38
Year 3 PV (M)145.64149.82154.08
Year 4 PV (M)161.53167.74174.13
Year 5 PV (M)176.21184.73193.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,051.143,198.523,351.53
Equity Value (M)3,772.943,942.704,118.71
Shares Outstanding (M)203.61203.61203.61
Fair Value$18.53$19.36$20.23
Upside / Downside-44.19%-41.68%-39.07%

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