Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

GuiZhou SanLi Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd (603439.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.52 - $20.89$12.70
Multi-Stage$6.49 - $7.06$6.77
Blended Fair Value$9.73
Current Price$12.65
Upside-23.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%45.98%0.250.120.020.270.010.000.170.110.150.00
YoY Growth--104.33%470.54%-91.90%4,103.18%0.00%-100.00%56.89%-30.00%10,505.51%-74.48%
Dividend Yield--1.95%0.76%0.12%1.48%0.03%0.00%1.61%1.02%1.46%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)160.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)153.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.1420.0912.05
Cash Retained (M)6.826.826.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.14-20.09-12.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)-25.32-13.27-5.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)413.78413.78413.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.03-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.03-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.52$12.70$20.89
Upside / Downside-32.68%0.43%65.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)160.68171.13182.25194.10206.71220.15226.75
Payout Ratio95.76%94.61%93.45%92.30%91.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)153.87161.90170.32179.16188.42198.13209.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)146.67148.06149.45
Year 2 PV (M)139.78142.44145.13
Year 3 PV (M)133.20137.02140.92
Year 4 PV (M)126.91131.79136.81
Year 5 PV (M)120.90126.73132.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,015.922,113.292,214.38
Equity Value (M)2,683.372,799.332,919.48
Shares Outstanding (M)413.78413.78413.78
Fair Value$6.49$6.77$7.06
Upside / Downside-48.73%-46.52%-44.22%

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