Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Longcheer Technology Co., Ltd. (603341.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consumer ElectronicsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.18 - $225.20$74.82
Multi-Stage$24.98 - $27.29$26.11
Blended Fair Value$50.47
Current Price$48.00
Upside5.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS68.09%0.00%0.610.081.060.280.090.050.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--634.90%-92.16%283.89%217.52%90.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.40%0.17%4.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)577.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)261.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)316.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)115.5172.1943.32
Cash Retained (M)316.28316.28316.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-115.51-72.19-43.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)200.77244.09272.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)464.34464.34464.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.530.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.530.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.001.091.15
WACC / Discount Rate8.05%8.05%8.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$41.18$74.82$225.20
Upside / Downside-14.21%55.87%369.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)577.55615.09655.07697.65743.00791.30815.03
Payout Ratio45.24%54.19%63.14%72.10%81.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)261.27333.32413.63502.97602.18712.17753.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.05%8.05%8.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)305.59308.49311.38
Year 2 PV (M)347.68354.30360.98
Year 3 PV (M)387.60398.73410.07
Year 4 PV (M)425.46441.82458.65
Year 5 PV (M)461.30483.59506.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,671.6510,138.7910,623.81
Equity Value (M)11,599.2812,125.7112,671.61
Shares Outstanding (M)464.34464.34464.34
Fair Value$24.98$26.11$27.29
Upside / Downside-47.96%-45.60%-43.15%

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