Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

HangZhou Nbond Nonwovens Co., Ltd. (603238.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.47 - $34.13$21.30
Multi-Stage$10.57 - $11.52$11.04
Blended Fair Value$16.17
Current Price$19.00
Upside-14.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.13%0.00%0.300.100.080.400.350.120.070.080.020.04
YoY Growth--195.24%33.27%-81.13%14.97%181.01%84.98%-18.01%368.63%-50.64%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.97%0.86%0.65%3.43%1.93%0.76%0.50%0.55%0.06%0.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)121.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)63.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.3615.239.14
Cash Retained (M)63.2863.2863.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.36-15.23-9.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.9248.0554.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)177.92177.92177.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.270.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.270.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.63
WACC / Discount Rate9.49%9.49%9.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.47$21.30$34.13
Upside / Downside-23.87%12.13%79.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)121.81129.72138.16147.14156.70166.89171.89
Payout Ratio48.05%56.44%64.83%73.22%81.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58.5373.2289.57107.73127.88150.20159.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.49%9.49%9.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)66.2466.8767.50
Year 2 PV (M)73.3174.7176.12
Year 3 PV (M)79.7882.0784.40
Year 4 PV (M)85.6888.9792.36
Year 5 PV (M)91.0495.43100.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,483.911,555.591,630.00
Equity Value (M)1,879.951,963.632,050.37
Shares Outstanding (M)177.92177.92177.92
Fair Value$10.57$11.04$11.52
Upside / Downside-44.39%-41.91%-39.35%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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