Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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DaShenLin Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (603233.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$73.66 - $198.28$185.81
Multi-Stage$28.53 - $31.20$29.84
Blended Fair Value$107.83
Current Price$16.49
Upside553.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.67%8.15%0.620.530.370.470.290.220.230.020.140.02
YoY Growth--16.41%43.83%-21.34%60.32%31.53%-3.56%1,179.78%-87.19%651.77%-93.37%
Dividend Yield--3.76%2.45%1.19%2.25%0.60%0.73%1.23%0.08%1.06%0.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,137.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)719.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)418.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)227.53142.2085.32
Cash Retained (M)418.58418.58418.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-227.53-142.20-85.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)191.06276.38333.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,141.061,141.061,141.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.240.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.630.630.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.240.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.870.92
WACC / Discount Rate6.64%6.64%6.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$73.66$185.81$198.28
Upside / Downside346.71%1,026.83%1,102.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,137.631,211.571,290.331,374.201,463.521,558.651,605.41
Payout Ratio63.21%68.56%73.92%79.28%84.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)719.04830.71953.851,089.491,238.741,402.781,485.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.64%6.64%6.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)771.65778.97786.28
Year 2 PV (M)823.05838.73854.55
Year 3 PV (M)873.26898.33923.87
Year 4 PV (M)922.30957.77994.25
Year 5 PV (M)970.191,017.051,065.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,197.7929,559.7530,973.84
Equity Value (M)32,558.2534,050.6035,598.51
Shares Outstanding (M)1,141.061,141.061,141.06
Fair Value$28.53$29.84$31.20
Upside / Downside73.03%80.97%89.19%

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