Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Goneo Group Co., Ltd. (603195.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.00 - $108.20$69.63
Multi-Stage$208.15 - $229.85$218.79
Blended Fair Value$144.21
Current Price$44.66
Upside222.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.791.300.950.801.470.000.121.340.410.30
YoY Growth--38.12%36.08%19.66%-45.81%0.00%-100.00%-91.18%225.59%36.64%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.48%2.55%1.81%1.86%2.47%0.00%0.42%4.72%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,987.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,104.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)883.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)797.53498.45299.07
Cash Retained (M)883.52883.52883.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-797.53-498.45-299.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)86.00385.07584.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,551.851,551.851,551.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.250.38
LTM Dividend per Share2.002.002.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.250.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.062.252.38
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$48.00$69.63$108.20
Upside / Downside7.49%55.92%142.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,987.633,947.753,908.273,869.193,830.503,792.193,905.96
Payout Ratio77.84%80.27%82.71%85.14%87.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,104.103,169.043,232.373,294.123,354.313,412.973,613.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3,069.603,100.933,132.25
Year 2 PV (M)3,032.703,094.913,157.75
Year 3 PV (M)2,993.663,086.243,180.71
Year 4 PV (M)2,952.713,075.093,201.23
Year 5 PV (M)2,910.073,061.613,219.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)308,063.55324,105.13340,808.12
Equity Value (M)323,022.30339,523.90356,699.45
Shares Outstanding (M)1,551.851,551.851,551.85
Fair Value$208.15$218.79$229.85
Upside / Downside366.08%389.89%414.68%

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