Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Changshu Automotive Trim Group Co., Ltd. (603035.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$175.04 - $206.23$193.27
Multi-Stage$139.47 - $153.05$146.13
Blended Fair Value$169.70
Current Price$17.61
Upside863.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.92%2.19%0.570.540.470.430.370.500.270.210.370.20
YoY Growth--6.54%13.76%10.93%14.07%-24.71%82.24%31.05%-43.26%86.73%-57.48%
Dividend Yield--3.91%3.32%2.43%3.16%3.34%3.78%1.94%1.41%1.41%1.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)388.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)173.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)214.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)77.6148.5129.10
Cash Retained (M)214.18214.18214.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-77.61-48.51-29.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)136.57165.68185.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)374.22374.22374.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.440.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.440.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.830.910.96
WACC / Discount Rate-0.87%-0.87%-0.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$175.04$193.27$206.23
Upside / Downside893.99%997.48%1,071.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)388.06413.29440.15468.76499.23531.68547.63
Payout Ratio44.81%53.85%62.88%71.92%80.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)173.88222.54276.78337.14404.18478.51506.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.87%-0.87%-0.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)222.38224.49226.59
Year 2 PV (M)276.39281.66286.97
Year 3 PV (M)336.43346.09355.93
Year 4 PV (M)403.04418.54434.48
Year 5 PV (M)476.82499.85523.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)50,476.6952,914.7455,446.09
Equity Value (M)52,191.7554,685.3657,273.83
Shares Outstanding (M)374.22374.22374.22
Fair Value$139.47$146.13$153.05
Upside / Downside691.97%729.81%769.09%

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