Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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China Design Group Co., Ltd. (603018.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.66 - $26.44$15.96
Multi-Stage$7.44 - $8.12$7.77
Blended Fair Value$11.87
Current Price$7.71
Upside53.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.42%15.57%0.320.270.270.230.190.210.160.110.090.07
YoY Growth--18.53%-1.95%17.84%22.40%-10.60%31.12%46.65%25.27%32.97%-11.45%
Dividend Yield--3.87%3.07%2.96%2.71%1.90%2.20%1.63%1.25%0.75%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)336.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)79.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)256.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.2542.0325.22
Cash Retained (M)256.75256.75256.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.25-42.03-25.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)189.50214.72231.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)699.05699.05699.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.310.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.310.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.420.44
WACC / Discount Rate9.31%9.31%9.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.66$15.96$26.44
Upside / Downside38.24%106.97%242.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)336.24358.10381.38406.17432.57460.68474.50
Payout Ratio23.64%36.91%50.18%63.46%76.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)79.49132.19191.39257.74331.90414.62438.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.31%9.31%9.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)119.79120.93122.06
Year 2 PV (M)157.19160.18163.20
Year 3 PV (M)191.83197.34202.95
Year 4 PV (M)223.87232.48241.34
Year 5 PV (M)253.44265.69278.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,252.714,458.114,671.38
Equity Value (M)5,198.835,434.735,679.33
Shares Outstanding (M)699.05699.05699.05
Fair Value$7.44$7.77$8.12
Upside / Downside-3.54%0.84%5.37%

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