Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China CITIC Bank Corporation Limited (601998.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.09 - $15.29$12.54
Multi-Stage$21.30 - $23.40$22.33
Blended Fair Value$17.43
Current Price$8.50
Upside105.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.05%9.76%0.500.360.330.260.250.220.240.200.170.00
YoY Growth--39.24%7.27%29.77%4.98%12.67%-7.45%18.99%14.24%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--7.03%5.75%6.17%5.07%4.51%4.21%3.68%3.07%2.59%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)69,564.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47,918.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)21,646.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13,912.808,695.505,217.30
Cash Retained (M)21,646.0021,646.0021,646.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-13,912.80-8,695.50-5,217.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,733.2012,950.5016,428.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)59,830.7459,830.7459,830.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.220.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.800.800.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.220.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.021.08
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.09$12.54$15.29
Upside / Downside18.70%47.48%79.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)69,564.0068,868.3668,179.6867,497.8866,822.9066,154.6768,139.31
Payout Ratio68.88%73.11%77.33%81.55%85.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47,918.0050,347.3652,723.3455,046.7757,318.4659,539.2063,028.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)46,563.3247,038.4647,513.59
Year 2 PV (M)45,095.9446,020.9646,955.37
Year 3 PV (M)43,544.5344,891.1746,265.30
Year 4 PV (M)41,933.7343,671.6945,463.12
Year 5 PV (M)40,284.6242,382.3444,566.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,057,037.011,112,079.381,169,391.18
Equity Value (M)1,274,459.151,336,083.991,400,155.10
Shares Outstanding (M)59,830.7459,830.7459,830.74
Fair Value$21.30$22.33$23.40
Upside / Downside150.60%162.72%175.32%

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