Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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China Communications Construction Company Limited (601800.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.91 - $53.68$34.63
Multi-Stage$32.64 - $35.77$34.18
Blended Fair Value$34.40
Current Price$8.74
Upside293.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.11%-7.08%0.440.220.200.180.230.390.341.101.041.09
YoY Growth--100.69%6.56%12.62%-22.33%-40.66%14.14%-68.60%4.97%-3.86%19.51%
Dividend Yield--4.76%2.46%1.93%1.91%3.28%4.75%2.71%8.52%5.83%8.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19,900.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15,288.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,611.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,980.092,487.561,492.53
Cash Retained (M)4,611.634,611.634,611.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,980.09-2,487.56-1,492.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)631.542,124.073,119.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16,164.9616,164.9616,164.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.130.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.950.950.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.130.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.981.081.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate2.21%3.21%4.21%
Fair Value$23.91$34.63$53.68
Upside / Downside173.53%296.19%514.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19,900.4520,539.1421,198.3421,878.6922,580.8723,305.6024,004.76
Payout Ratio76.83%79.46%82.10%84.73%87.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15,288.8216,320.6517,402.9718,537.9519,727.8520,975.0422,204.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate2.21%3.21%4.21%
Year 1 PV (M)15,187.4615,336.0515,484.64
Year 2 PV (M)15,070.1815,366.5115,665.73
Year 3 PV (M)14,938.4015,381.1715,832.60
Year 4 PV (M)14,793.4615,380.9615,985.79
Year 5 PV (M)14,636.6115,366.7716,125.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)453,029.03475,628.74499,121.52
Equity Value (M)527,655.14552,460.21578,216.06
Shares Outstanding (M)16,164.9616,164.9616,164.96
Fair Value$32.64$34.18$35.77
Upside / Downside273.48%291.03%309.26%

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