Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Ningxia Jiaze Renewables Corporation Limited (601619.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.87 - $31.05$13.38
Multi-Stage$5.08 - $5.54$5.31
Blended Fair Value$9.35
Current Price$5.48
Upside70.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.50%5.13%0.170.150.150.130.140.120.140.110.100.11
YoY Growth--13.55%-2.11%18.57%-6.29%10.92%-13.26%24.95%12.43%-10.70%10.59%
Dividend Yield--4.80%4.41%3.55%3.10%3.84%4.06%2.46%1.45%5.64%6.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)674.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)378.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)295.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)134.8284.2650.56
Cash Retained (M)295.44295.44295.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-134.82-84.26-50.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)160.62211.18244.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,534.842,534.842,534.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.25
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.87$13.38$31.05
Upside / Downside43.63%144.24%466.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)674.11717.93764.59814.29867.22923.59951.30
Payout Ratio56.17%62.94%69.70%76.47%83.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)378.67451.85532.95622.68721.83831.23879.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)413.11417.02420.94
Year 2 PV (M)445.47453.96462.52
Year 3 PV (M)475.85489.51503.43
Year 4 PV (M)504.32523.71543.66
Year 5 PV (M)530.96556.60583.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,503.0611,010.3611,537.08
Equity Value (M)12,872.7713,451.1714,050.86
Shares Outstanding (M)2,534.842,534.842,534.84
Fair Value$5.08$5.31$5.54
Upside / Downside-7.33%-3.17%1.15%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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