Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Industrial Securities Co.,Ltd. (601377.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.34 - $74.97$47.82
Multi-Stage$10.99 - $12.03$11.50
Blended Fair Value$29.66
Current Price$6.54
Upside353.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.58%26.01%0.380.330.380.390.340.370.470.350.260.14
YoY Growth--13.66%-13.42%-3.17%16.27%-7.09%-22.75%35.74%33.81%81.66%284.72%
Dividend Yield--6.40%5.96%6.25%5.36%4.19%6.09%6.70%5.52%3.54%1.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,365.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,854.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,510.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)673.02420.63252.38
Cash Retained (M)1,510.511,510.511,510.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-673.02-420.63-252.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)837.491,089.871,258.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,863.088,863.088,863.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.47%6.47%6.47%
Growth Rate4.73%5.73%6.73%
Fair Value$18.34$47.82$74.97
Upside / Downside180.43%631.21%1,046.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,365.083,557.923,761.803,977.374,205.304,446.284,579.67
Payout Ratio55.11%62.09%69.07%76.04%83.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,854.572,209.102,598.183,024.593,491.344,001.664,236.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.47%6.47%6.47%
Growth Rate4.73%5.73%6.73%
Year 1 PV (M)2,055.332,074.962,094.58
Year 2 PV (M)2,249.062,292.212,335.78
Year 3 PV (M)2,435.932,506.372,578.16
Year 4 PV (M)2,616.112,717.472,821.74
Year 5 PV (M)2,789.772,925.533,066.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)85,230.8789,378.3893,685.80
Equity Value (M)97,377.07101,894.92106,582.58
Shares Outstanding (M)8,863.088,863.088,863.08
Fair Value$10.99$11.50$12.03
Upside / Downside67.99%75.79%83.88%

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