Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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New China Life Insurance Company Ltd. (601336.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$362.57 - $1,414.06$614.89
Multi-Stage$226.81 - $247.97$237.20
Blended Fair Value$426.04
Current Price$61.16
Upside596.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.36%14.61%1.511.351.621.391.410.770.570.690.580.51
YoY Growth--11.17%-16.54%16.81%-1.43%83.14%33.97%-16.21%17.97%13.52%32.95%
Dividend Yield--2.92%4.44%5.32%3.93%2.90%1.93%1.03%1.49%1.38%1.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)38,406.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,032.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)29,374.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,681.204,800.752,880.45
Cash Retained (M)29,374.0029,374.0029,374.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,681.20-4,800.75-2,880.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)21,692.8024,573.2526,493.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,119.773,119.773,119.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.957.888.49
LTM Dividend per Share2.902.902.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.957.888.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.8510.7711.39
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$362.57$614.89$1,414.06
Upside / Downside492.82%905.38%2,212.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)38,406.0040,902.3943,561.0546,392.5149,408.0352,619.5554,198.13
Payout Ratio23.52%36.81%50.11%63.41%76.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,032.0015,057.6921,828.5729,416.0437,897.6547,357.5950,133.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)13,764.7913,895.2614,025.73
Year 2 PV (M)18,240.9518,588.3918,939.10
Year 3 PV (M)22,470.7423,115.8023,773.08
Year 4 PV (M)26,464.0727,481.8028,528.61
Year 5 PV (M)30,230.4831,690.6233,206.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)596,426.08625,233.68655,143.82
Equity Value (M)707,597.11740,005.55773,617.00
Shares Outstanding (M)3,119.773,119.773,119.77
Fair Value$226.81$237.20$247.97
Upside / Downside270.85%287.83%305.45%

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