Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Jiangnan Water Co., Ltd. (601199.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.61 - $23.83$14.39
Multi-Stage$6.76 - $7.38$7.07
Blended Fair Value$10.73
Current Price$5.58
Upside92.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.31%12.11%0.150.090.090.080.080.070.080.110.090.06
YoY Growth--65.54%0.00%12.50%0.00%14.29%-12.50%-27.27%22.22%56.52%21.05%
Dividend Yield--2.82%1.85%1.16%1.19%1.90%1.89%1.84%2.22%1.11%0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)405.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)123.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)282.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)81.1850.7330.44
Cash Retained (M)282.48282.48282.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-81.18-50.73-30.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)201.31231.75252.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)935.12935.12935.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.250.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.250.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate9.31%9.31%9.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.61$14.39$23.83
Upside / Downside72.25%157.84%327.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)405.88432.26460.36490.28522.15556.09572.77
Payout Ratio30.40%42.32%54.24%66.16%78.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)123.40182.94249.70324.37407.70500.48529.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.31%9.31%9.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)165.79167.36168.93
Year 2 PV (M)205.07208.98212.92
Year 3 PV (M)241.41248.34255.40
Year 4 PV (M)274.97285.55296.42
Year 5 PV (M)305.90320.67336.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,130.935,378.755,636.06
Equity Value (M)6,324.066,609.656,905.75
Shares Outstanding (M)935.12935.12935.12
Fair Value$6.76$7.07$7.38
Upside / Downside21.20%26.67%32.35%

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