Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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China Railway Construction Corporation Limited (601186.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$58.13 - $325.23$110.91
Multi-Stage$47.42 - $51.91$49.62
Blended Fair Value$80.27
Current Price$7.85
Upside922.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS50.91%6.65%1.641.440.250.230.210.210.930.870.760.85
YoY Growth--14.33%484.47%6.96%9.52%0.00%-77.46%7.47%13.88%-10.59%-1.38%
Dividend Yield--20.76%16.53%2.73%3.00%2.62%2.14%7.99%8.85%5.86%7.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22,511.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14,496.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,015.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,502.382,813.991,688.39
Cash Retained (M)8,015.058,015.058,015.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,502.38-2,813.99-1,688.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,512.675,201.076,326.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13,579.5413,579.5413,579.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.380.47
LTM Dividend per Share1.071.071.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.380.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.331.451.53
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate4.05%5.05%6.05%
Fair Value$58.13$110.91$325.23
Upside / Downside640.50%1,312.91%4,043.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22,511.9023,647.9324,841.2926,094.8727,411.7128,795.0129,658.86
Payout Ratio64.40%69.52%74.64%79.76%84.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14,496.8416,439.3518,541.0020,812.8923,266.8625,915.5127,434.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate4.05%5.05%6.05%
Year 1 PV (M)15,300.5315,447.5915,594.64
Year 2 PV (M)16,061.1516,371.3716,684.55
Year 3 PV (M)16,780.2317,268.7217,766.61
Year 4 PV (M)17,459.2318,140.1818,840.86
Year 5 PV (M)18,099.6018,986.2619,907.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)560,214.74587,658.62616,167.66
Equity Value (M)643,915.48673,872.75704,961.66
Shares Outstanding (M)13,579.5413,579.5413,579.54
Fair Value$47.42$49.62$51.91
Upside / Downside504.05%532.15%561.32%

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