Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industrial Bank Co., Ltd. (601166.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$59.18 - $120.87$82.88
Multi-Stage$76.14 - $83.41$79.71
Blended Fair Value$81.29
Current Price$19.85
Upside309.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.30%15.30%2.402.612.242.341.991.951.941.881.440.48
YoY Growth---8.09%16.61%-4.07%17.35%2.33%0.55%3.08%30.29%199.79%-16.96%
Dividend Yield--11.12%16.51%13.27%11.30%8.27%12.23%10.38%11.25%8.89%3.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)77,282.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47,938.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)29,344.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15,456.409,660.255,796.15
Cash Retained (M)29,344.0029,344.0029,344.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-15,456.40-9,660.25-5,796.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)13,887.6019,683.7523,547.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22,597.8022,597.8022,597.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.871.04
LTM Dividend per Share2.122.122.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.871.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.742.993.16
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate2.30%3.30%4.30%
Fair Value$59.18$82.88$120.87
Upside / Downside198.11%317.52%508.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)77,282.0079,835.7982,473.9785,199.3388,014.7490,923.2093,650.89
Payout Ratio62.03%67.62%73.22%78.81%84.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47,938.0053,988.1360,385.7767,147.2874,289.7281,830.8886,627.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate2.30%3.30%4.30%
Year 1 PV (M)49,951.6950,439.9550,928.22
Year 2 PV (M)51,693.7952,709.3253,734.72
Year 3 PV (M)53,184.3754,759.2656,364.93
Year 4 PV (M)54,442.2756,602.3258,826.02
Year 5 PV (M)55,485.1258,250.4261,124.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,455,886.301,528,445.551,603,869.38
Equity Value (M)1,720,643.541,801,206.811,884,848.16
Shares Outstanding (M)22,597.8022,597.8022,597.80
Fair Value$76.14$79.71$83.41
Upside / Downside283.59%301.55%320.19%

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