Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

China South Publishing & Media Group Co., Ltd (601098.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.37 - $27.87$19.74
Multi-Stage$15.19 - $16.60$15.89
Blended Fair Value$17.81
Current Price$12.28
Upside45.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.28%12.51%0.650.600.660.630.620.610.600.500.290.27
YoY Growth--8.33%-8.05%3.54%1.61%1.67%1.67%20.00%72.41%7.41%35.00%
Dividend Yield--4.66%4.70%5.63%6.68%5.94%5.77%4.62%3.94%1.62%1.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,583.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)987.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)595.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)316.75197.97118.78
Cash Retained (M)595.96595.96595.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-316.75-197.97-118.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)279.21397.99477.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,786.811,786.811,786.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.220.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.220.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.710.780.82
WACC / Discount Rate8.45%8.45%8.45%
Growth Rate3.35%4.35%5.35%
Fair Value$14.37$19.74$27.87
Upside / Downside17.03%60.77%126.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,583.761,652.661,724.551,799.581,877.861,959.562,018.34
Payout Ratio62.37%67.90%73.42%78.95%84.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)987.801,122.101,266.211,420.731,586.311,763.601,866.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.45%8.45%8.45%
Growth Rate3.35%4.35%5.35%
Year 1 PV (M)1,024.761,034.671,044.59
Year 2 PV (M)1,056.051,076.591,097.32
Year 3 PV (M)1,082.141,113.861,146.19
Year 4 PV (M)1,103.441,146.771,191.37
Year 5 PV (M)1,120.341,175.611,233.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,763.4322,836.9023,952.32
Equity Value (M)27,150.1628,384.3929,664.80
Shares Outstanding (M)1,786.811,786.811,786.81
Fair Value$15.19$15.89$16.60
Upside / Downside23.74%29.36%35.20%

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