Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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CSC Financial Co., Ltd. (601066.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$208.16 - $245.25$229.84
Multi-Stage$51.83 - $56.77$54.26
Blended Fair Value$142.05
Current Price$26.82
Upside429.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.21%27.16%0.970.880.930.800.720.570.580.420.250.15
YoY Growth--10.67%-5.23%16.48%10.55%25.97%-1.77%39.80%67.81%62.32%73.67%
Dividend Yield--4.03%3.95%3.62%3.42%2.26%1.84%2.21%5.34%3.18%1.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,014.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,922.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,092.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,002.901,251.81751.09
Cash Retained (M)5,092.015,092.015,092.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,002.90-1,251.81-751.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,089.113,840.204,340.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,120.838,120.838,120.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.380.470.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.610.610.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.380.470.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.991.081.14
WACC / Discount Rate5.49%5.49%5.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$208.16$229.84$245.25
Upside / Downside676.15%756.96%814.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,014.5110,665.4511,358.7112,097.0212,883.3313,720.7514,132.37
Payout Ratio49.15%57.32%65.49%73.66%81.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,922.506,113.757,439.078,910.8410,542.5212,348.6713,072.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.49%5.49%5.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,741.365,795.785,850.20
Year 2 PV (M)6,560.446,685.406,811.54
Year 3 PV (M)7,379.747,591.587,807.44
Year 4 PV (M)8,199.248,514.568,838.89
Year 5 PV (M)9,018.979,454.599,906.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)384,027.13402,575.78421,834.33
Equity Value (M)420,926.88440,617.69461,049.29
Shares Outstanding (M)8,120.838,120.838,120.83
Fair Value$51.83$54.26$56.77
Upside / Downside93.26%102.30%111.68%

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