Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd. (600999.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.84 - $94.30$51.42
Multi-Stage$36.63 - $40.18$38.37
Blended Fair Value$44.90
Current Price$17.11
Upside162.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.97%17.18%0.990.911.251.060.860.780.830.570.740.64
YoY Growth--8.95%-26.84%18.09%22.64%10.39%-5.70%44.17%-22.15%14.61%215.70%
Dividend Yield--5.60%6.46%9.05%7.30%4.39%5.50%5.57%3.99%5.46%4.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,107.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,716.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,391.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,421.561,513.47908.08
Cash Retained (M)8,391.638,391.638,391.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,421.56-1,513.47-908.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,970.076,878.167,483.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,953.658,953.658,953.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.670.770.84
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.670.770.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.181.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate2.97%3.97%4.97%
Fair Value$32.84$51.42$94.30
Upside / Downside91.91%200.54%451.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,107.7912,588.2613,087.7813,607.1414,147.1014,708.4815,149.74
Payout Ratio30.69%42.55%54.42%66.28%78.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,716.165,356.797,121.779,018.3911,054.3213,237.6414,013.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate2.97%3.97%4.97%
Year 1 PV (M)4,988.005,036.445,084.88
Year 2 PV (M)6,174.936,295.456,417.13
Year 3 PV (M)7,281.077,495.277,713.63
Year 4 PV (M)8,310.368,637.938,975.09
Year 5 PV (M)9,266.609,725.4010,202.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)291,907.13306,359.76321,379.25
Equity Value (M)327,928.08343,550.24359,772.18
Shares Outstanding (M)8,953.658,953.658,953.65
Fair Value$36.63$38.37$40.18
Upside / Downside114.06%124.25%134.84%

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