Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Ningbo Energy Group Co.,Ltd. (600982.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.36 - $57.90$54.26
Multi-Stage$9.43 - $10.30$9.85
Blended Fair Value$32.06
Current Price$4.45
Upside620.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.43%24.54%0.290.280.280.230.100.110.100.040.060.05
YoY Growth--2.67%2.41%21.74%122.48%-7.30%13.11%150.50%-34.34%9.30%67.15%
Dividend Yield--6.16%7.32%6.65%4.01%2.72%4.15%2.44%1.00%1.06%1.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)329.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)298.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.8841.1824.71
Cash Retained (M)31.1831.1831.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.88-41.18-24.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)-34.70-10.006.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,131.451,131.451,131.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$31.36$54.26$57.90
Upside / Downside604.63%1,119.35%1,201.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)329.41350.82373.63397.91423.78451.32464.86
Payout Ratio90.53%90.43%90.32%90.21%90.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)298.23317.24337.46358.97381.85406.19430.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)295.68298.48301.29
Year 2 PV (M)293.15298.74304.38
Year 3 PV (M)290.65298.99307.49
Year 4 PV (M)288.16299.25310.64
Year 5 PV (M)285.70299.50313.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,210.639,655.5010,117.41
Equity Value (M)10,663.9811,150.4611,655.03
Shares Outstanding (M)1,131.451,131.451,131.45
Fair Value$9.43$9.85$10.30
Upside / Downside111.80%121.46%131.48%

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