Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Huaan Securities Co., Ltd. (600909.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$77.39 - $91.18$85.45
Multi-Stage$17.18 - $18.82$17.99
Blended Fair Value$51.72
Current Price$6.32
Upside718.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.60%29.06%0.220.190.190.180.150.100.120.070.150.05
YoY Growth--18.71%2.30%4.36%14.50%48.53%-11.26%64.76%-51.04%193.99%182.72%
Dividend Yield--4.04%4.05%3.84%3.59%2.68%1.49%1.78%1.12%1.40%0.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,225.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)852.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,373.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)445.08278.18166.91
Cash Retained (M)1,373.081,373.081,373.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-445.08-278.18-166.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)928.001,094.901,206.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,853.954,853.954,853.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.230.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.230.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate5.76%5.76%5.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$77.39$85.45$91.18
Upside / Downside1,124.54%1,252.04%1,342.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,225.422,370.082,524.132,688.202,862.933,049.023,140.49
Payout Ratio38.30%48.64%58.98%69.32%79.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)852.341,152.811,488.741,863.462,280.612,744.122,904.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.76%5.76%5.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,079.751,089.981,100.22
Year 2 PV (M)1,306.011,330.891,356.00
Year 3 PV (M)1,531.141,575.101,619.89
Year 4 PV (M)1,755.141,822.641,892.07
Year 5 PV (M)1,978.012,073.552,172.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)75,759.2079,418.4083,217.64
Equity Value (M)83,409.2687,310.5691,358.56
Shares Outstanding (M)4,853.954,853.954,853.95
Fair Value$17.18$17.99$18.82
Upside / Downside171.90%184.61%197.81%

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