Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. (600901.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.49 - $107.23$100.49
Multi-Stage$15.54 - $17.00$16.26
Blended Fair Value$58.38
Current Price$5.67
Upside929.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.19%23.28%0.240.240.230.220.180.160.080.070.030.08
YoY Growth---0.41%3.67%3.26%26.20%10.19%106.30%11.57%102.85%-55.45%162.91%
Dividend Yield--4.53%4.95%5.49%6.45%4.32%4.42%1.48%0.99%0.54%1.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,161.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,730.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,431.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)632.30395.19237.11
Cash Retained (M)1,431.391,431.391,431.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-632.30-395.19-237.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)799.091,036.211,194.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,863.275,863.275,863.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$41.49$100.49$107.23
Upside / Downside631.76%1,672.38%1,791.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,161.503,366.993,585.853,818.934,067.164,331.524,461.47
Payout Ratio54.72%61.78%68.83%75.89%82.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,730.102,080.112,468.302,898.173,373.503,898.374,126.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,933.061,951.381,969.70
Year 2 PV (M)2,131.652,172.252,213.23
Year 3 PV (M)2,325.952,392.722,460.75
Year 4 PV (M)2,516.022,612.782,712.30
Year 5 PV (M)2,701.942,832.442,967.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)79,522.5983,363.5687,351.53
Equity Value (M)91,131.2095,325.1399,675.47
Shares Outstanding (M)5,863.275,863.275,863.27
Fair Value$15.54$16.26$17.00
Upside / Downside174.12%186.74%199.82%

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