Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (600867.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.23 - $27.23$17.66
Multi-Stage$21.89 - $24.04$22.94
Blended Fair Value$20.30
Current Price$8.29
Upside144.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.02%10.28%0.260.260.570.220.210.210.180.150.120.11
YoY Growth---0.16%-54.71%157.81%5.32%-0.79%18.86%20.35%25.19%10.26%10.59%
Dividend Yield--3.42%2.38%4.84%2.18%1.70%2.01%0.99%0.67%0.84%0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,225.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)990.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)234.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)245.18153.2491.94
Cash Retained (M)234.97234.97234.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-245.18-153.24-91.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)-10.2181.73143.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,911.541,911.541,911.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.040.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.040.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.59
WACC / Discount Rate5.56%5.56%5.56%
Growth Rate1.31%2.31%3.31%
Fair Value$12.23$17.66$27.23
Upside / Downside47.50%113.03%228.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,225.881,254.171,283.111,312.721,343.011,374.011,415.23
Payout Ratio80.83%82.67%84.50%86.33%88.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)990.921,036.781,084.231,133.311,184.091,236.601,309.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.56%5.56%5.56%
Growth Rate1.31%2.31%3.31%
Year 1 PV (M)972.58982.18991.78
Year 2 PV (M)954.12973.05992.16
Year 3 PV (M)935.57963.55992.08
Year 4 PV (M)916.96953.71991.54
Year 5 PV (M)898.34943.56990.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,172.7539,043.9840,989.81
Equity Value (M)41,850.3243,860.0245,947.97
Shares Outstanding (M)1,911.541,911.541,911.54
Fair Value$21.89$22.94$24.04
Upside / Downside164.10%176.78%189.95%

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