Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shenzhen Expressway Corporation Limited (600548.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$88.90 - $104.74$98.15
Multi-Stage$24.07 - $26.35$25.19
Blended Fair Value$61.67
Current Price$9.95
Upside519.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.05%11.23%1.031.041.121.060.760.930.550.540.450.61
YoY Growth---1.26%-6.94%5.70%38.72%-17.83%69.22%1.45%19.00%-25.43%71.90%
Dividend Yield--9.15%10.64%12.82%10.98%7.19%10.67%5.03%6.43%5.23%6.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,241.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)951.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)289.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)248.26155.1793.10
Cash Retained (M)289.93289.93289.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-248.26-155.17-93.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)41.66134.76196.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,357.012,357.012,357.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.060.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.060.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.49
WACC / Discount Rate5.32%5.32%5.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$88.90$98.15$104.74
Upside / Downside793.45%886.48%952.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,241.321,322.011,407.941,499.451,596.921,700.721,751.74
Payout Ratio76.64%79.31%81.99%84.66%87.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)951.391,048.551,154.311,269.401,394.571,530.651,620.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.32%5.32%5.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)986.25995.591,004.94
Year 2 PV (M)1,021.211,040.671,060.30
Year 3 PV (M)1,056.301,086.621,117.52
Year 4 PV (M)1,091.501,133.481,176.66
Year 5 PV (M)1,126.821,181.251,237.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)51,440.1753,924.7556,504.42
Equity Value (M)56,722.2659,362.3662,101.60
Shares Outstanding (M)2,357.012,357.012,357.01
Fair Value$24.07$25.19$26.35
Upside / Downside141.86%153.12%164.80%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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