Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Yabao Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd (600351.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.71 - $8.91$6.41
Multi-Stage$11.03 - $12.12$11.56
Blended Fair Value$8.99
Current Price$6.54
Upside37.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.96%2.04%0.160.070.110.080.070.340.160.080.160.24
YoY Growth--121.53%-37.18%35.11%22.03%-79.44%112.80%91.74%-47.68%-33.31%82.27%
Dividend Yield--2.60%1.13%1.62%1.01%1.41%6.79%1.91%1.09%1.82%2.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)222.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)210.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)12.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.5727.8616.71
Cash Retained (M)12.5112.5112.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.57-27.86-16.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)-32.06-15.35-4.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)714.52714.52714.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.02-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.02-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate5.34%5.34%5.34%
Growth Rate0.04%1.04%2.04%
Fair Value$4.71$6.41$8.91
Upside / Downside-28.02%-2.00%36.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)222.85225.17227.51229.88232.27234.68241.72
Payout Ratio94.39%93.51%92.63%91.75%90.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)210.34210.55210.75210.92211.08211.22223.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.34%5.34%5.34%
Growth Rate0.04%1.04%2.04%
Year 1 PV (M)197.90199.87201.85
Year 2 PV (M)186.17189.91193.69
Year 3 PV (M)175.13180.43185.84
Year 4 PV (M)164.72171.41178.29
Year 5 PV (M)154.92162.82171.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,000.567,357.517,728.88
Equity Value (M)7,879.398,261.958,659.59
Shares Outstanding (M)714.52714.52714.52
Fair Value$11.03$11.56$12.12
Upside / Downside68.62%76.80%85.31%

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