Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangxi Ganyue Expressway CO.,LTD. (600269.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.89 - $23.12$16.35
Multi-Stage$18.53 - $20.35$19.42
Blended Fair Value$17.89
Current Price$4.85
Upside268.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.59%-1.18%0.300.290.310.410.420.420.470.440.440.43
YoY Growth--0.71%-3.37%-25.45%-3.52%1.61%-11.51%7.27%-0.87%3.44%28.33%
Dividend Yield--5.78%6.47%9.00%11.34%11.85%12.03%10.17%9.14%8.16%8.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,755.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)539.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,215.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)351.11219.44131.67
Cash Retained (M)1,215.751,215.751,215.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-351.11-219.44-131.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)864.64996.311,084.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,354.062,354.062,354.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.420.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.420.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.39%6.39%6.39%
Growth Rate1.30%2.30%3.30%
Fair Value$11.89$16.35$23.12
Upside / Downside145.21%237.20%376.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,755.541,796.001,837.391,879.741,923.061,967.382,026.40
Payout Ratio30.75%42.60%54.45%66.30%78.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)539.79765.061,000.441,246.251,502.861,770.641,874.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.39%6.39%6.39%
Growth Rate1.30%2.30%3.30%
Year 1 PV (M)712.11719.14726.16
Year 2 PV (M)866.73883.92901.29
Year 3 PV (M)1,004.951,035.011,065.66
Year 4 PV (M)1,127.991,173.201,219.74
Year 5 PV (M)1,236.991,299.261,364.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)38,665.7440,612.1842,636.23
Equity Value (M)43,614.5145,722.7047,913.09
Shares Outstanding (M)2,354.062,354.062,354.06
Fair Value$18.53$19.42$20.35
Upside / Downside282.01%300.47%319.66%

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