Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hua Xia Bank Co., Limited (600015.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$87.96 - $338.91$250.05
Multi-Stage$43.30 - $47.35$45.28
Blended Fair Value$147.67
Current Price$6.58
Upside2,144.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.63%13.64%0.990.960.880.800.680.540.440.310.300.31
YoY Growth--2.96%9.10%9.91%18.03%24.39%22.98%44.34%2.56%-4.17%13.59%
Dividend Yield--12.60%14.61%16.33%14.37%10.51%8.41%5.24%3.44%3.18%3.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)27,147.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13,510.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,637.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,429.403,393.382,036.03
Cash Retained (M)13,637.0013,637.0013,637.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,429.40-3,393.38-2,036.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,207.6010,243.6311,600.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,914.9815,914.9815,914.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.640.73
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.640.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.361.491.58
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.40%6.40%7.40%
Fair Value$87.96$250.05$338.91
Upside / Downside1,236.83%3,700.12%5,050.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)27,147.0028,884.2530,732.6732,699.3834,791.9537,018.4338,128.98
Payout Ratio49.77%57.81%65.86%73.91%81.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13,510.0016,698.8120,240.4324,166.9528,513.1233,316.5935,269.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.40%6.40%7.40%
Year 1 PV (M)15,454.7115,601.3415,747.97
Year 2 PV (M)17,336.8417,667.3818,001.03
Year 3 PV (M)19,157.8719,708.3520,269.28
Year 4 PV (M)20,919.2121,724.4922,552.79
Year 5 PV (M)22,622.2723,716.0024,851.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)593,583.67622,281.87652,079.46
Equity Value (M)689,074.57720,699.41753,502.16
Shares Outstanding (M)15,914.9815,914.9815,914.98
Fair Value$43.30$45.28$47.35
Upside / Downside558.01%588.21%619.54%

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