Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Godex International Co., Ltd (4987.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.34 - $53.93$46.07
Multi-Stage$61.93 - $67.60$64.71
Blended Fair Value$55.39
Current Price$70.40
Upside-21.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-2.40%0.00%3.494.482.721.572.523.940.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---22.22%65.00%72.50%-37.50%-36.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.40%7.24%4.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)194.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)165.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.8324.2714.56
Cash Retained (M)28.4028.4028.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.83-24.27-14.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)-10.444.1313.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)32.0132.0132.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.330.130.43
LTM Dividend per Share5.185.185.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.330.130.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.855.315.61
WACC / Discount Rate10.40%10.40%10.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$38.34$46.07$53.93
Upside / Downside-45.54%-34.55%-23.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)194.16192.22190.30188.40186.51184.65190.19
Payout Ratio85.38%86.30%87.23%88.15%89.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)165.77165.89165.99166.07166.13166.18175.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.40%10.40%10.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)148.74150.25151.77
Year 2 PV (M)133.44136.18138.94
Year 3 PV (M)119.71123.41127.19
Year 4 PV (M)107.37111.82116.41
Year 5 PV (M)96.30101.31106.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,376.991,448.701,523.36
Equity Value (M)1,982.552,071.682,164.20
Shares Outstanding (M)32.0132.0132.01
Fair Value$61.93$64.71$67.60
Upside / Downside-12.03%-8.08%-3.97%

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